If 40% of Homeowners Plan to Sell - Why Aren’t More Properties Coming to Market?

geoff@envelope.com.au (Geoff Lucas) — Sun, 15 Feb 2026 08:57:48 GMT

Recent research suggests that up to 40% of Australian homeowners are considering selling within the next five years. On the surface, that signals a potential wave of future listings.

Yet market data tells a different story.

Australia has approximately 11.4 million residential dwellings nationwide, and in a typical year around 550,000-560,000 properties transact. At that pace, the average property changes hands roughly once every 20 years.

If so many owners are contemplating a move, why does supply remain near cyclical lows?

The Real Barrier: “Where Would I Go?”

One of the most commonly cited reasons homeowners hesitate to list is uncertainty about what they will buy next.

In a low-inventory environment:

• Sellers fear not finding a suitable replacement property
• Families worry about being caught between sale and purchase
• Downsizers struggle to secure quality alternatives
• Upgraders hesitate amid strong competition

This creates a self-reinforcing cycle:
Low supply reduces confidence → Fewer people list → Supply remains constrained.

In effect, many owners are willing in principle - but not confident enough to act.

A Liquidity Problem, Not a Motivation Problem

The issue may not be a lack of intent. It may be a lack of visibility.

When homeowners cannot clearly see their next move, they delay their current one. The traditional sequential model - sell first, then buy - amplifies risk and uncertainty.

How Envelope Helps Break the Cycle

Envelope introduces earlier visibility into both sides of the market.

For Owners:
• Explore buyer demand discreetly before formally listing
• Understand realistic price appetite
• Discover potential next-move properties before committing

For Buyers:
• Signal genuine intent to potential sellers
• Access opportunities earlier in the decision cycle
• Reduce reliance on broad public campaigns

By improving transparency and connection earlier in the transaction process, Envelope reduces the “where would I go?” barrier - increasing confidence for both sides.

In a market where supply constraints are as much behavioural as structural, enabling smarter matching may be one of the most powerful ways to unlock movement.

Explore what your next move could look like on Envelope.

Market Update: Affordability Pressures Persist as Supply Remains Constrained

geoff@envelope.com.au (Geoff Lucas) — Sun, 15 Feb 2026 08:33:35 GMT

Late 2025 and early 2026 reporting from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) confirms what many buyers and sellers are already experiencing — Australia’s housing market remains structurally undersupplied, with affordability pressures intensifying despite interest rate cuts throughout 2025.

While rate reductions have modestly improved borrowing capacity, they have not materially shifted the supply-demand imbalance. Listing volumes remain near cyclical lows across many markets, even as population growth and underlying housing demand stay elevated.

This constrained supply environment continues to support dwelling values nationally. However, affordability has become a defining feature of the current cycle. Buyers are increasingly price-sensitive, and competition for well-located, realistically priced homes remains strong.

Cotality data also indicates that nearly one in five sellers during 2025 cited financial pressure as a contributing motivation for listing. Importantly, this does not suggest widespread distress — rather, it highlights the impact of sustained cost-of-living pressures on household decision-making.

blog

If 40% of Homeowners Plan to Sell - Why Aren’t More Properties Coming to Market?

The Real Barrier: “Where Would I Go?”

A Liquidity Problem, Not a Motivation Problem

How Envelope Helps Break the Cycle

Market Update: Affordability Pressures Persist as Supply Remains Constrained